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(06/02/07) -

World Predicts Chinese Economy as Leader

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Most people in 13 countries believe the United States economy will not remain the strongest one forever, according to a poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and worldpublicopinion.org.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Most people in 13 countries believe the United States economy will not remain the strongest one forever, according to a poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and worldpublicopinion.org.

At least 60 per cent of respondents in the U.S., South Korea, Argentina, Russia, Iran, France, Israel and Peru think China’s economy could grow to be as large as America’s one day.

Half of respondents in China believe the same, and more than 40 per cent of people in Armenia, Ukraine and Poland concur. Only in the Philippines and India do more respondents think the U.S. economy will always be larger than China’s.

On May 30, the World Bank said in its quarterly outlook on the Chinese economy that the country’s growth could reach 10.4 per cent by the end of this year. The report suggests that Chinese economic policy “would best focus on the financial sector and rebalancing the economy. (…) This requires a shift in production from industry toward services, more reliance on domestic demand and more equally shared and environmentally sustainable growth.”

Following a high-level diplomatic meeting focused on U.S.-China economic relations on May 24, U.S. president George W. Bush urged China to open up financial markets to American companies, saying, “Not only would it be beneficial to the United States, we happen to think it would be beneficial to the Chinese economy for the consumers to have different options when it comes to savings and purchases.”

Polling Data

Do you think that it is more likely that someday China’s economy will grow to be as large as the U.S. economy or that the U.S. economy will always stay larger than China’s?

China will grow

U.S. stay larger

Not sure

Peru

76%

17%

7%

Israel

75%

14%

11%

France

69%

26%

5%

Iran

64%

21%

16%

Russia

62%

20%

17%

Argentina

61%

15%

24%

South Korea

61%

37%

2%

United States

60%

35%

4%

China

50%

38%

12%

Armenia

47%

30%

23%

Ukraine

43%

20%

36%

Poland

43%

26%

31%

Thailand

39%

16%

45%

Philippines

38%

42%

19%

India

22%

36%

42%

Source: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs / worldpublicopinion.org
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 adults in 19 countries, conducted from June 2006 to March 2007. More details on accompanying report.

Complete Poll (PDF)