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us_white-house_2008
(12/31/07) -

Obama Leads Five Republicans in U.S. Race

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama is the most popular presidential candidate in the United States, according to a poll by Zogby International. At least 47 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in head-to-head contests against five prospective Republican rivals.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama is the most popular presidential candidate in the United States, according to a poll by Zogby International. At least 47 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in head-to-head contests against five prospective Republican rivals.

Obama holds a four-point lead over Arizona senator John McCain, a five-point advantage over former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a nine-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a 16-point advantage over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and an 18-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In other match-ups, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton trails McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani, but leads both Thompson and Romney. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards trails McCain and is almost tied with Giuliani, but holds the upper hand in contests against Huckabee, Thompson and Romney.

Yesterday, Obama expressed confidence in a good showing at the Iowa caucus, saying, "We have as good of an organization as I think people have ever seen in Iowa, and this is going to be a tight race. I think the polls are going to be bouncing up and down over the next five days, but what we’re confident about is that if our folks come to the caucus and participate, then we’re going to do very well."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups – 2008 U.S. presidential election

McCain v. Obama

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Barack Obama (D)

47%

45%

46%

John McCain (R)

43%

42%

43%

Huckabee v. Obama

 

Dec. 2007

Barack Obama (D)

47%

Mike Huckabee (R)

42%

Giuliani v. Obama

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Barack Obama (D)

48%

46%

48%

Rudy Giuliani (R)

39%

42%

42%

Thompson v. Obama

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Barack Obama (D)

52%

48%

52%

Fred Thompson (R)

36%

40%

35%

Romney v. Obama

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Barack Obama (D)

53%

49%

52%

Mitt Romney (R)

35%

35%

35%

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

John McCain (R)

49%

43%

47%

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

42%

45%

43%

Huckabee v. Rodham Clinton

 

Dec. 2007

Mike Huckabee (R)

48%

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

43%

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Rudy Giuliani (R)

46%

41%

48%

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

42%

46%

43%

Thompson v. Rodham Clinton

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

48%

47%

48%

Fred Thompson (R)

42%

41%

41%

Romney v. Rodham Clinton

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

46%

48%

48%

Mitt Romney (R)

44%

38%

40%

McCain v. Edwards

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

John McCain (R)

46%

43%

46%

John Edwards (D)

42%

43%

41%

Giuliani v. Edwards

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

Rudy Giuliani (R)

45%

46%

47%

John Edwards (D)

44%

43%

43%

Huckabee v. Edwards

 

Dec. 2007

John Edwards (D)

47%

Mike Huckabee (R)

41%

Romney v. Edwards

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

John Edwards (D)

50%

47%

50%

Mitt Romney (R)

38%

38%

36%

Thompson v. Edwards

 

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

May 2007

John Edwards (D)

51%

46%

48%

Fred Thompson (R)

35%

40%

40%

Source: Zogby International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Dec. 12 to Dec. 14, 2007. Margin of error is 4.9 per cent.