The Poll Archive RSS

israel_wall
(12/15/08) -

Support for Likud Soars Before Israeli Ballot

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The rightist Likud party could claim victory in the upcoming legislative election in Israel, according to a poll by Shvakim Panorama released by Israel Radio. A prospective tally shows that Likud would get 34 seats in the Knesset, up nine since October.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The rightist Likud party could claim victory in the upcoming legislative election in Israel, according to a poll by Shvakim Panorama released by Israel Radio. A prospective tally shows that Likud would get 34 seats in the Knesset, up nine since October.

The governing Kadima is second with 20 mandates, followed by the Labour party with 14 seats, the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 12 mandates, and Israel Our Home with 11 seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10, 2009.

Likud’s potential victory has raised questions about the future of ongoing peace talks with the Palestinians. Likud has a powerful, ultra-nationalist wing that opposes the peace talks, wants to ban Arab citizens of Israel from serving in the Knesset, and seeks to pull Israel out of the United Nations (UN).

On Dec. 10, Likud leader and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to such concerns, saying that he has told European Union (EU) leaders that "a Likud government under my leadership will continue the peace talks.’ Netanyahu added: "We intend to interlace them with economic development, rapid economic development for the Palestinians and regional cooperation with Jordan and Egypt."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

 

Dec. 2008

Oct. 2008

Likud (Consolidation)

34

25

Kadima (Forward)

20

22

Labour

14

16

International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas)

12

11

Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu)

11

10

Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism)

7

6

Vitality-Together (Meretz-Yachad)

6

5

Jewish Home (National Union and NRP)

4

7

Green Party (Yerukim)

2

Gil (Retired People’s Party)

1

Arab Parties

9

9

Source: Shvakim Panorama / Israel Radio
Methodology: Interviews with 510 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 10, 2008. No margin of error was provided.