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can_jun01
(06/01/10) -

Canadian Tories Lead, But Merger Could Sway Voters

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Conservative Party is still in first place in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 35 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next federal election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Conservative Party is still in first place in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 35 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next federal election.

The opposition Liberal Party is second with 27 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Greens with eight per cent.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in October 2008. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 37.6 per cent of the vote, and secured 143 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper assembled a minority administration. The Tories also earned a minority mandate after the 2006 election, ending more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December, Michael Ignatieff took over as Liberal leader, replacing Stéphane Dion.

Harper became the Conservative Party’s first leader in March 2004, following the merger between the Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party. In recent weeks, there has been growing speculation about the possibility of the Liberals and the NDP working together before the next federal election takes place.

A merged Liberal-NDP party led by Ignatieff would trail the Conservatives by six points. Under former Ontario Premier Bob Rae, the two parties would be tied at 38 per cent. The new party would be ahead of the Tories by six points under NDP leader Jack Layton.

Earlier this month, Ignatieff discussed his time as opposition leader, saying, "My adversaries have done a number on me and that’s politics. (…) Canadians have to say, ‘Yeah, he’s not so bad. They’ve written all this bad stuff about him. He’s not so bad. He’s a human being. You ask him a question he’ll give you an answer. And here’s for good reasons and he’s here to stay’."

The next election to the House of Commons is tentatively scheduled for Oct. 15, 2012. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion. In order to trigger an election, all three opposition parties in the House of Commons—Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois—would have to defeat the government in a no-confidence motion.

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

 

May 27

Apr. 29

Mar. 26

Feb. 26

Conservative

35%

35%

35%

33%

Liberal

27%

28%

29%

29%

New Democratic Party

19%

19%

20%

20%

Bloc Québécois

9%

11%

9%

9%

Green

8%

7%

7%

9%

Other

1%

1%

0%

1%

Suppose the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) merged and had [Michael Ignatieff / Bob Rae / Jack Layton] as leader. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

 

Led by Ignatieff

Led by Rae

Led by Layton

Conservative

40%

38%

37%

Merged Liberal / NDP Party

34%

38%

43%

Bloc Québécois

11%

12%

9%

Green

9%

9%

8%

Other

5%

4%

3%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 2,022 Canadian adults, conducted from May 25 to May 27, 2010. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

Complete Poll (PDF)